Floridians should gear up for an “explosive” hurricane season — one that has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in one season, according to a new report from AccuWeather.
During the 2024 hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, forecasters predict at least 20 to 25 named storms with a 10 to 15 percent chance of 30 or more storms this year.
Of these named storms, eight to 12 of them could reach hurricane status with four to seven of the storms possibly becoming major hurricanes, and four to six hurricanes could have a direct hit to the United States, AccuWeather said.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct U.S. impacts,” Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster, said. “All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
While there were 19 named storms during the above-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, only one hurricane directly hit the U.S. last year. Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a category-3 hurricane on Aug. 30 near Keaton Beach, Florida, causing storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the Southeast.
NOAA will issue its predictions for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season in May.
This season, Texas, the Carolinas and Florida — particularly the Panhandle and South Florida — face a heightened risk of a direct hit, forecasters added.
There’s a combination of four factors driving this year’s predictions, DaSilva said: the move from El Niño into a La Niña weather pattern, historically warm ocean waters, a stronger African easterly jet stream, and the strength and position shift of the Bermuda-Azores high pressure area.
Another factor to consider is climate change, Michael Brennan, National Hurricane Center director, told CBS News Miami’s chief meteorologist Ivan Cabrera.
Sea level rise is “raising that base water level,” Brennan said. “When you have a hurricane come, that water is higher than it was 20, 30, 40 years ago. So, you’re making the storm surge risk worse and you’re expanding storm surge risk into places where maybe it didn’t exist before.”
He noted that “storm surge and heavy rainfall flooding is what killed the vast majority of people in the U.S.” during tropical storms and hurricanes.”