An “extraordinary” 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, is expected this year, Dr. Rick Spinrad, director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, said during a news conference Thursday.
There’s an 85 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season this year, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season, he said.
The agency predicts 15 to 25 named storms this season — the highest number NOAA has ever forecast, Spinrad added.
Of these storms, eight to 13 of them could reach hurricane status with maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph, while four to seven are forecast to become major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
This historic forecast is largely driven by a La Niña weather pattern, which suppresses wind shear, and historically warm ocean waters.
“The warmer ocean means it’s more energetic,” Spinrad said.
April was the Earth’s warmest on record and the 11th-consecutive month of record-breaking global warmth, according to a NOAA news release.
The National Hurricane Center operated by the NOAA is already eyeing a potential disturbance a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola about one week before hurricane season officially starts, though it has just a 10 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next seven days as of Thursday morning.
The NOAA hurricane season forecast comes on the heels of AccuWeather’s latest predictions.
AccuWeather’s meteorologists “are concerned about a serious threat of rapidly intensifying storms during the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season, which could leave families, businesses, and government leaders with less time to react and prepare,” according to a news release.
The biggest threat of rapidly intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes is to those along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastlines, especially coastal Texas, the Carolinas, the Florida Panhandle and South Florida, the weather center said.
In March, the weather center predicted an “explosive” 2024 hurricane season with the possibility of more than 30 named storms, which would break records, and four to six hurricanes making a direct hit to the United States.
The research team at Colorado State University in April predicted 23 named tropical storms this season, including 11 hurricanes, five of which could be Category 3 or higher major hurricanes.
The chances for a busy season are a combination of record-warm Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns that boost tropical cyclones, CSU researchers said.
The overall probability of major hurricanes making landfall somewhere in the continental U.S. is 62 percent, compared to an average of 43 percent, forecasters said.
“All the ingredients are definitely in place to have an active season and you know, it’s a reason to be concerned, of course, but not alarmed,” Ken Graham, National Weather Service director, said during Thursday’s news conference.
Those living in areas likely to be hit by a storm should prepare in advance, he added, warning of the rapid intensification of strong hurricanes.
Every Category 5 hurricane that has ever hit the U.S. was a tropical storm three days prior, according to Graham. “And several didn’t even exist three days prior. You gotta be prepared is the big takeaway, and hey, we’re getting ready; how about you?”