No crop is perhaps more emblematic of the Sunshine State than the mighty orange, which makes it an emotional injury as well as an economic one that the Florida staple has seen a decadeslong slip in production.
After last year’s historically low yield, a report last week from the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected that production during the 2023-2024 season will rebound.
However, the state remains in a decadeslong slide from peak production. Ten years ago, Florida oranges comprised about 70% of the United States’ supply. After the 2020-2021 season, it was down to 38%.
The forecast for oranges across the country is up 10% from last year; Florida’s forecast of 20.5 million boxes of oranges, or 923,000 tons, is a 30% increase from a year ago. The current projection would produce fewer oranges than cultivated in 1937-1938.
For historical context, that is about a year before the Nazi invasion of Poland.
Hurricane Ian, which swept through south-central Florida in September 2022, caused about $247 million in citrus production losses, according to a report from the University of Florida. On top of the hurricane season, Florida farmers continue to deal with citrus greening disease eating away at their crops.
Florida orange production has been slipping for decades. The USDA projection is an increase from last year, but is also just about 9% of the 230 million boxes of oranges in Florida produced in 2001-2002, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
The forecast report, released Oct. 12 by the USDA in conjunction with the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and the Agricultural Statistics Board, forecasted Florida’s yield by surveying the number of fruit-bearing trees and the number of fruit per tree in August and September.
“In August and subsequent months, fruit size measurement and fruit droppage surveys are conducted, which combined with the previous components are used to develop the current forecast of production,” the report said.
In a press release, Shannon Shepp, executive director of the Florida Department of Citrus, said the overall citrus forecast, which also showed single-digit growth among tangerine and grapefruit yields, strengthened the industry’s faith in its own future.
“The foundation of this industry is its ability to adapt, overcome and evolve in our treatments and protections against prolonged challenges stemming from extreme weather and citrus greening,” Shepp said.