After months of courtroom wrangling, backroom maneuvering, and taxpayer money set ablaze in a political gamble gone wrong, Miami voters will in fact have a chance to elect their next mayor on Nov. 4. City leaders tried and failed to push the non-partisan election off until 2026, arguing that aligning with even-numbered election years would save money and increase voter turnout. Instead, they squandered more than $1 million in outside attorneys’ fees before appeals courts forced them to restore the ballot.
Now, 13 names are jockeying for the top job at City Hall — a list that reads like a Miami political time capsule. The ballot is loaded with last names straight out of the city’s political soap opera: Carollo, Díaz de la Portilla, and Suarez. Throw in a handful of newcomers and longshots, and election day promises a noisy, messy brawl.
“This is the City of Miami’s Groundhog Day election,” filmmaker and Miami City Hall critic Billy Corben told Biscayne Times. “It’s the 1997 mayoral race all over again — same last names, same fights, same corruption.”
(Biscayne Times)
Ex-Miami City Commissioner Alex Diaz de la Portilla is among the old guard politicians running for mayor.
OLD GUARD REFUSES TO LEAVE
No one embodies Miami’s inability to let go of its past more than Joe Carollo. The 70-year-old commissioner — once dubbed “Crazy Joe” during his fiery City Hall mayoral reign during the late 1990s — waited until the filing deadline’s final moments before dramatically entering the race. He appeared at City Hall flanked by his wife, Marjorie, and an entourage of loyalists.
Carollo’s political career stretches back to 1979, and it has been punctuated by scandals, courtroom defeats, and a 2023 federal verdict that saddled him personally with a staggering $63.5 million judgment to developers Bill Fuller and Martin Pinilla, whom a jury found were victims of Carollo’s abuses of power.
None of that seems to stop him.
“No one runs a City of Miami race better than Joe Carollo,” Corben said. “His life is the naked pursuit of power. He’s the real wildcard here.”
Carollo’s war chest, nearly $2 million according to campaign finance reports, and his ability to turn out voters in odd-year, low-turnout elections, make him a formidable candidate.
Then there’s Alex Díaz de la Portilla, a member of another entrenched Miami familial dynasty. Díaz de la Portilla was suspended from office last year after being arrested on bribery and campaign finance charges. Though state prosecutors later dropped the case for lack of evidence, his political career seemed finished after voters booted him in a landslide. Yet, like Carollo, he sees another opening.
The mayoral race also revives an old grudge match: Carollo’s ‘90s rivalry with Xavier Suarez, Miami’s mayor through much of that decade and the father of outgoing Mayor Francis Suarez. In 1997, Suarez initially beat Carollo, only to have a judge toss the results after widespread voter fraud was uncovered. Carollo was installed instead.
(Miami-Dade County)
Xavier Suarez, former Miami Mayor and ex-county commissioner, is hoping he can take over the reigns from his son and current Miami Mayor, Francis Suarez.
Suarez’s brand carries both weight and baggage. The elder Suarez remains well known from his stint as the first Cuban-American mayor and his comeback in the late 2010s when he was elected to the Miami-Dade County Commission. But his son Francis’ tenure as Miami mayor, marred by ethics questions, a cryptocurrency debacle, and his anemic presidential flirtation in 2024, has tarnished the family name with Miami voters.
“People don’t want another four years of Suarezes,” Corben said. “What’s Xavier’s record now? He’s Francis’ father. That’s it.”
Carollo has the best shot of making it to the runoff, but would likely lose in a citywide election due to his recent controversies, opined Emiliano Atuñez, a Miami-based political consultant.
“He has no shot at winning citywide,” Altunez said. “His negatives are really high even among Hispanics.”
NEW PLAYERS, DIFFERENT PROMISES
(Emilio Gonzalez)
Former Miami City Manager Emilio Gonzalez raised his profile by successfully suing the city to restore this year's Nov. 4 election.
Beyond the Miami oligarchical political veterans, new names hoping to change Miami’s trajectory have entered the ring. None looms larger than Emilio González, the retired U.S. Army colonel and former Miami city manager best known for suing the city to restore this election.
A MAGA-aligned Republican, González pitches himself as the anti-corruption choice. He was also a key witness in the civil lawsuit that gutted Carollo financially this year.
“Emilio could be the freshest face among Hispanic candidates,” Atuñez explained. “Everybody knows Joe. Everybody knows Xavier. Everybody knows Diaz de la Portilla. Emilio benefits from that contrast.”
Morningside grassroots activist Sandy Moise pointed out that many residents appreciate González’s legal fight.
“Several people I’ve spoken to respect Emilio for suing the city to win back our elections,” she said. “This whole ordeal has confused voters, suppressed engagement, and cost taxpayers dearly. People see someone who stood up to City Hall’s worst instincts.”
On the other side of Miami’s political divide, Miami-Dade County Commissioner Eileen Higgins hopes to make history as the city’s first female mayor. Known as “La Gringa” in Latino-heavy neighborhoods, Higgins has crafted a reputation as a policy-focused moderate Democrat.
Her campaign is relying on political strategist Christian Ulvert, architect of Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava’s countywide victories in 2020 and 2024. Higgins’ campaign is banking on high turnout in District 2 — downtown, Brickell, and surrounding areas — where voters are especially angry about the election chaos and where she is strongest, Atuñez noted.
But Higgins faces competition from Ken Russell, Miami’s former District 2 commissioner, who left office to chase a congressional run that fizzled. Russell is popular with progressives but risks splitting the city’s left-leaning vote.
(Ken Russell)
Former District 2 City Commissioner Ken Russell may siphon votes from Higgins.
“Higgins’ main problem is Russell,” Atuñez said. “They both draw from the same progressive-leaning, younger constituency. Ken cannot win, but he can siphon away just enough to weaken Higgins.”
A CERTAIN RUNOFF
With 13 candidates crammed into one ballot, it is unlikely any of the top candidates will surpass the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright. Carollo, Díaz de la Portilla, Suarez, and Gonzalez are all fishing in the same pond of older Cuban-American voters. Higgins and Russell divide the progressive and Democratic bloc, with Higgins better positioned.
“The most likely runoff is Eileen Higgins versus Emilio González,” Atuñez said. “But Carollo complicates things. If he can consolidate the Cuban Republican vote, he can block González from making it.”
Turnout is the great unknown heading into Nov. 4. Miami elections in odd-numbered years usually draw low numbers, concentrated in a handful of city districts. This cycle, with months of confusion about whether the election would even happen, organizers fear voter apathy will deepen.
“Many residents still believe the election is cancelled,” Morningside’s Moise said. “The public deserves clarity, not chaos, especially when it comes to our right to vote.”
That dynamic might actually favor Carollo, Corben argued. Higgins and González may benefit from better-funded, professional campaigns, but neither excels at Carollo’s gritty, retail politics.
“In Miami, odd-year elections become like district races,” Corben said. “There’s a finite number of people who actually show up, and Joe knows exactly who they are. He has been turning them out for decades.”
For many Miamians, the details of who’s in, who’s out, and who’s recycling their last name ring hollow compared with the city’s day-to-day dysfunction, Moise added.
“Miami is not working for us,” said Moise, the Morningside activist. “Drive around. “We need a mayor who can thoughtfully balance growth with the environment, and who will champion community development, affordability, sustainability, and arts and culture.”
Whether voters ultimately choose familiarity, reform, or a historic first with Higgins, Miami politics never really changes, Corben said.
“This election should have been about Miami’s future,” he said. “Instead, it’s about whether the same old ghouls can hang on. That’s the tragedy of Miami politics.”