Redistricting Already Redrawing the Lines

Miami-Dade is still the most populous county in Florida, but according to the results of the 2020 Census, its population isn’t growing as fast as most of its neighbors. And the places where the population is increasing the most are miles away from Miami’s urban core or densely developed coastline.

Those factors will impact redistricting in the coming months. That means there’s a decent chance someone else will be representing you in the U.S. House of Representatives, Florida Legislature, Miami-Dade County Commission, school board, and maybe even your municipal council or commission.

As of April 1, 2020, Miami-Dade had a population of 2.7 million, just an 8.2% increase from April 2010. Most population growth took place in southern and western parts of the county like Doral (up 66%), Naranja (up 63%), Sweetwater (up 43%) and Homestead (up 33%). That resulted in Miami-Dade County’s District 8, represented by Danielle Cohen-Higgins, swelling by 43,370 people, the most of any of the county’s 13 districts.

And in spite of a development boom within the greater downtown area, the City of Miami only saw its population go up 11% in 10 years. There were modest population increases in other parts of the Biscayne Corridor, like Aventura (13%), Sunny Isles Beach (7%), North Bay Village (14%), Miami Shores (10%), Biscayne Gardens (2%), North Miami (2%), North Miami Beach (5%) and Golden Beach (5%). Some places in Miami-Dade actually went down in population, like El Portal, Miami Beach and Surfside.

Accuracy & Migration

One reason census counts didn’t climb too much in many places with newly built high-end condominiums is that their inhabitants aren’t full-time residents.

“Most of our new development is not the primary home for most of our buyers,” explained Christopher Russo, Sunny Isles Beach city manager.

Activists also blame the pandemic for reducing census outreach and Donald Trump for frightening immigrants.

Leonie Hermantin, director of development at Sant La Haitian Neighborhood Center in North Miami, noted that the Trump administration “declared war on immigrants, whether legal or documented or undocumented.”

In spite of Trump losing court cases that prevented his administration’s plans to include a question on the census about citizenship, the anxiety of many Haitian residents was still high at the time of the count.

“[Trump] was seen as a man who got his way one way or the other,” Hermantin said. “We even had to convince citizens to be counted.”

Edward “Ned” Murray, associate director of the FIU Metropolitan Center, said low-paying jobs coupled with the high cost of housing is the real reason people are moving to regions further south, west or out of Miami-Dade altogether.

“People are leaving, quite frankly. It is showing up in the labor statistics,” he said.

While most counties are showing signs of their labor forces increasing, Miami-Dade still has a deficit of 120,000 workers. In contrast, Murray said Tampa is “really booming,” in part because its economy is diversified with high-paying jobs and its housing costs are 40% lower than many places in South Florida.

And the new population numbers have thrown the existing maps for Miami-Dade’s 13 districts out of whack.

While state law allowed commission districts to deviate up to 10% from each other in population, that deviation rate is as high as 30.1% now, explained Priti Mathur, a principal of ArcBridge Consulting.

“We have to balance the districts,” she said.

This can’t be done by violating the federal voting rights act, which forbids the creation of new districts that violate the rights of racial and linguistic minorities. State law also mandates that districts be geographically compact. Additionally, a 2004 county law forbids districts from being drawn in a way that leaves out the home of that district’s sitting commissioner.

So far, the most controversial proposal east of I-95 is taking a portion of District 4 between Biscayne Boulevard, NE 163rd Street, North Miami Beach Boulevard and NE 172nd Street, and include it within Commissioner Jean Monestime’s District 2. With a population of 10,499 people, that residential sector would give a needed boost to counter District 2’s anemic growth.

Many Maps Potentially Being Redrawn

District 4 Commissioner Sally Heyman objects to the District 2 proposal, and points out that it would separate a growing Jewish orthodox community within the North Miami Beach Windward area.

“My district has the highest number of Jewish Orthodox [members] in [Miami-Dade],” said Heyman, adding that this particular neighborhood has “10 temples in an eight-block area.”

Alan Sakowitz, an outspoken member of NMB’s Jewish Orthodox community, says District 2 already has a “tiny part” of that neighborhood, which consists of two apartment buildings. He fears dividing the area further would dilute its residents’ collective voice.

“When issues come up effecting the Orthodox Jewish community, they will see we have been weakened for no reason,” fretted Sakowitz.

District 4 is demographically different from District 2. Currently consisting of places like Aventura, Sunny Isles Beach, most of North Miami Beach, eastern North Miami, Bal Harbour, Bay Harbor Islands, Surfside and a large chunk of Miami Beach, District 4’s population is 46.1% Hispanic, 39.9% non-Hispanic white, and 6.9% Black. In contrast, District 2, which includes western North Miami and North Miami Beach, is 52.4% Black, 40.1% Hispanic and 4.4% non-Hispanic white.

Heyman shared that another idea was worked out which will keep the Orthodox community together. County officials said the plan is still being worked out and will be presented at the next Citizens Redistricting Advisory Committee on Nov. 5.

But Yona Lunger, vice president of the Greater North Miami Beach Chamber of Commerce, isn’t too worried about part of his neighborhood potentially falling into District 2. He noted that Orthodox Jews comprise a substantial part of an ethnically mixed neighborhood that already works together to combat crime. Indeed, according to ArcBridge, the section that might be transferred to District 2 is 46.2% Hispanic, 33.4% Black and 13.2% non-Hispanic white.

“I really don’t see a problem,” said Lunger.

New maps for the county school board, drawn by Maria Ilcheva and Dario Moreno of the FIU Metropolitan Center, have also been submitted. Major changes include board Vice Chair Steve Gallon III’s District 1 taking a larger share of North Miami Beach and unincorporated neighborhoods west of Aventura; Dorothy Bendross-Mindingall’s District 2 picking up the southern portions of North Miami; and Lucia Baez-Geller’s District 3 capturing more coastal areas on the mainland, like Brickell and Coconut Grove. The maps will be discussed in public hearings in November and a decision could be reached as early as December.

As for the Miami-Dade County Commission districts, regional zoom meetings will be held between Nov. 6-8. No date is scheduled for when the commission will approve a new map, but it is anticipated that it will occur before the end of the year.

In contrast, the City of Miami is at the very preliminary stages of its redistricting efforts, said Miguel De Grandy, an attorney and redistricting consultant awarded a $100,000 contract by the city, who said public meetings on the subject should begin within the next three months.

The Last Word Lies With the Legislature

Redistricting is hardly on the radar screen of another municipality with single-member districts – North Miami.

“We’ll redistrict ourselves, but [it’s] just not on the menu right now. We normally only move a block in either direction,” stated Councilman Scott Galvin.

As for the Florida Legislature, it just started holding subcommittee meetings on redistricting in October. Proposed bills to redraw state senate, state house and congressional districts aren’t expected until January.

Thanks to a federal law mandating that each congressional district within a state maintain a population difference of less than 1%, many congressional districts will likely be redrawn. Among them is Congressional District (CD) 26, now occupied by Democratic Congresswoman Frederica Wilson, which needs to obtain another 26,679 residents. CD 26 currently includes most of Miami’s downtown area, Overtown, Liberty City, Wynwood, Edgewater, Little Haiti, El Portal, Miami Shores, Biscayne Gardens, and most of North Miami and North Miami Beach.

And while state districts are allowed to deviate in population by as much as 10%, the Florida Legislature will still try to present a map with districts deviating by less than 2%, said De Grandy, a former Republican state representative. This makes it fairly likely that Florida Senate District Seat 38, which covers much of eastern Miami-Dade County and is held by Democrat Jason Pizzo, will be altered since that district is below its “ideal population” by 50,255.

Florida House 108, represented by Democrat Dotie Joseph, covers large parts of the City of Miami as well as Miami Shores, El Portal and Biscayne Park, and is underpopulated by 20,829 people. And Florida House 113, represented by Democrat Michael Grieco and encompassing Brickell, downtown Miami, Omni, Miami Beach and North Bay Village, is underpopulated by 19,522 people.

When they do redraw the map, Florida legislators are forbidden from gerrymandering districts in ways that “intentionally” harm or benefit a political party or incumbent, thanks to amendments to the Florida constitution that were approved by voters in 2010. But that didn’t stop Republican lawmakers in 2012 from passing a map that benefited their party. In response, the Florida Supreme Court nullified the Legislature’s map and passed a new map drawn by voting rights groups in 2015.

State Rep. Joe Geller, the lone Democrat on the state house’s redistricting subcommittee – and whose district includes Aventura and southern Broward – says he just wants to ensure transparency, and remains hopeful that this will be a smooth process, for now.

“It was a bad process 10 years ago, but we got a lot of promises about it being an open process this year,” Geller said. “And you know, I am optimistic, until it is demonstrated otherwise.”